Films about disasters, pandemics, global warming … is the end of the world predicted? If so, it’s not an impossible fact. In addition, we already have an expiration date for some scientists. This is what a study published in Scientific Reports says. He predicts that civilization will collapse in forty years. So use your current time: Forty years fly by.
The study focuses on mathematical models. They point to deforestation and the destruction of the planet’s forests as the cause. Our calculations show it. With current population growth and consumption of resources, we will collapse in a few decades. This is particularly affected by the consumption of forests. The phrase comes from Mauro Bologna and Gerardo Aquino, the scientific authors of the study.
You remember that before civilization appeared, the earth was covered by 60 million square kilometers of forest. Now there are fewer than 40. Deforestation between 2000 and 2012 shows that 200,000 square kilometers of forest are cut down every year. Thus the forest masses would disappear in a period between 100 and 200 years.
These figures leave little room for a favorable scenario. ‘A catastrophic collapse is the most likely scenario. We are based on the dynamic development of current parameters. The probability that our civilization will survive is less than 10%. This will lead to a drastic population decrease.
The article has one major caveat. It is assumed that population growth and deforestation will remain constant in the years to come. They indicate that it is difficult to imagine large changes in these parameters.
But other dates give us hope. Yes, according to Global Forest Watch, forest loss accelerated 2.8% in 2019. However, according to FAO data, forest loss decreased from 7.8 million hectares per year to 4.7. The reforestation brought this change with it.
Forests enable the storage of carbon, the production of oxygen and the regulation of the water cycle. They support natural and human food systems. And they purify the atmosphere by protecting myriad species. It is highly unlikely that one can imagine survival on an earth without forests. ‘
Because of this, they have focused on modeling the consequences that indiscriminate deforestation can have. They draw mathematical models with statistical tools. According to these models, civilization will collapse in forty years. What do we do then? Run away to other planets? Build a mega space base? There is no time for these plans.
However, there are choices we can make that can lead to change. Not only can the leaders of the world take these small actions forward, but we, the citizens of the world, too.