It is highly probable. Hurricanes will become more intense and frequent in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Oceans. It will happen during the next decade. A research team used prognosis software from the United Kingdom’s weather office. Hurricane patterns calculated up to 10 years in advance. It was projected that the amount of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic could more than double compared to the levels of the 1970s. The activity in the Eastern Pacific could increase by more than one third. It is also expected that the total energy of these storms will increase dramatically. In the North Atlantic, the energy of the storms could increase twice.
Prevention
The authors said in a statement: «Until now, predicting hurricanes is like seeing through a dense fog. We could only distinguish what was directly in front of us. «A better forecast clears that fog and reveals patterns that will occur years later. This advance provides coastal communities for a precious time to prepare. Our study shows that hurricane activity will increase to 2030 ».
A specialized monitoring algorithm predicted future hurricane patterns. He tracked individual storms within model’s simulations. It does not depend on indirect indicators such as sea level pressure or sea surface temperature patterns.
Direct storm monitoring is used for short -term forecasts of days or months. This is the first time that hurricane patterns has been applied successfully until a decade before. This longer term vision provides communities with an unprecedented perspective on future risks.
More energy
Hurricanes will become more intense, no doubt. The increase provided in hurricane activity is linked to two key environmental factors. They are the surface temperatures of the ocean and wind patterns in the atmosphere. It is likely that the temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean are higher in the coming years. This provides more energy for hurricanes to form and intensify.
It is expected that changes in wind patterns create more favorable conditions for hurricane development. These changes are driven by a combination of natural climatic variations and long -term climatic trends.
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