We all see the effects of climate change. Just look at the news any day. Europeans are feeling its onslaught the hardest, lately. It doesn’t look like it’s going to get any better. Europe is predicted to see more frequent flooding.
Nine times more rain
How much did the likelihood of deadly floods increase in Europe? Up to nine times, due to recent global warming. This is confirmed by an international study published on 24 August.
Many perished in the severe floods that hit western Germany. At least 190 people lost their lives in mid-July. And 38 more after extreme rains in the Wallonia region of southern Belgium.
How to calculate the role of climate change in the rains that caused the floods? Scientists analyzed weather records and computer simulations. They compared today’s climate with that of the past. We are 1.2 degrees Celsius higher, due to man-made emissions.
They calculated the likelihood of floods. They are 1.2 to nine times more likely to occur in today’s warming climate. What was the point of comparison? A scenario without any warming since pre-industrial times.
Intense changes
The downpours over Germany and the Benelux region are now 3% to 19% heavier. This is due to human-induced warming. The study is organized by World Weather Attribution.
“Climate change increased the likelihood of flooding. But not only that. It also increased their intensity,” said Frank Kreienkamp of the German weather service.
Friederike Otto, associate director of Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute, said the floods showed that “even developed countries are not safe from the severe impacts of extreme weather that we have seen and know worsen with climate change.”
We will see flooding in Europe more frequently, very soon. What other chaos will climate change bring around the world?
