Now everything depends on the volcano. This is the Taal near Manila. Climatologists predict what will happen if you become more active. The gases released should lead to an El Niño event in winter 2020-21. In addition, they would create a more intense polar vortex and warming throughout Eurasia. The Taal is the Philippine volcano that could change the climate.
When it started to break on January 12, 2020, the ashes released 14 kilometers into the air. It covered the villages with a layer of dust that affected almost 460,000 people. The eruption so far is moderate compared to some of the largest eruptions in history. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) has since downgraded its warning.
But the same volcanologists are now warning that the Taal volcano could just be calm. There is still a risk of a more dangerous outbreak. "The Taal outbreak was terrible for local communities," LIU Fei said in a statement. He is a researcher at Sun Yat-sen University in China. "It is also a global risk with potentially dangerous consequences for the Earth's climate."
The fine ash and sulfur dioxide from the eruptions block the incoming solar radiation. They thus reduce the heat on the earth's surface. This in turn leads to global warming. For a year after particularly violent eruptions, the cold can increase in large parts of the planet. Warming can also occur in the first winter after the eruption in the northern hemisphere when the surface temperature recovers.
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The research is presented as a "News & Views" article in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (AAS).
They examined the extent of volcanic eruptions worldwide in the past 1,100 years. You have included them in global climate models. This allowed them to project the effects of the Taal outbreak.
They assume that there is an 83% probability of an El Niño-like warming event in winter 2020/21. As long as the extent of the Taal eruption reaches a medium "volcanic explosion index". Such an outbreak would also create an improved polar vortex. That is, a large area with low pressure and cold air that surrounds the north and south poles of the earth. This would lead to warming across the entire Eurasian continent.
It is as if one domino tile is pushing another. The Philippine volcano, which can change the climate, will decide what will happen in part of our planet in the following months.
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